The Reliability Cycle?

DfR Solutions has published a white paper entitled The Reliability Cycle: Understanding the Booms and Busts of Reliability in Electronics. In the 1950s and 1960s, large OEMs built-up impressive reliability programs in response to numerous reliability problems. The thesis of the paper is that large OEMs are reducing reliability staffs to reduce overhead costs. The paper further statest that companies are now vulnerable to major reliability problems as component and contract manufactuer suppliers are entrusted with product reliabilty. After some major problems, the reliabilty cycle pendulum will swing back to the other side.

Certainly no one has a crystal ball in this area. While I do see increased vulnerability in depending on suppliers, the reliabilty cycle (?) will not swing back to the 1960s. The days of reliability predictions based on a generic formula are gone (limited usefullness). The days of standard reliability qualification testing for either parts or systems is also gone (can't get the product to market). Instead what is needed is knowledge - or as Edward Deming would say profound knowledge. The best way to proceed in these fast paced times is hire, develop, nurture reliability masters with a deep knowledge of the physics of components and failure mechanisms. This type of knowledge is more important than knowledge in traditional reliability statistics. From this profound knowledge come keen observations and indentification of tests pin-pointed to answer specific questions. Some of these tests are simply ad hoc tests for rapid asessments. Assessments come in a timely manner. Useless tests can be ignored. Where to find these individuals? Since this specialty area is not taught in schools, first look for the old timers - those who have seen many failures. Secondly, start a mentoring program for the younger engineers who want this to be their life's work. Avoid those who are the fast track to management and will quickly leave the field. Also, encourage networking in professional organizations so that we can all learn from other's experience. The old does sometimes cycle back but it usually returns in a different form.